Following the annual general membership meeting on January 31, NordCham hosted the Economic Briefing 2018 for its members and guests with Dr. Dan Steinbock, CEO and Founder of DifferenceGroup, and Mr. Martin Guri, Chief Equity Strategist at Nordea Markets as the speakers.
In his outlook, Dr. Steinbock put the focus on global trends: ‘triple uncertainty’ of monetary divergence, cyclical recovery/structural woes, and overpriced market valuations, return of inflation, US trade protectionism, China’s globalization (One Belt One Road Initiative) and local government debt risks, currency volatility, structural shifts in competitiveness and innovation, and elevated climate change risks. In the Philippines, the transformative leadership of the administration is driving the base case GDP growth of 6.5% in 2018, while special attention should be addressed to accelerated infrastructure and human capital investment, economic and regional rebalancing, and climate change risk mitigation.
Mr. Guri provided his global market outlook for 2018, highlighting firm cyclical tailwinds in the early going while expecting that financial markets will later, step by step, discount a weaker 2019-2020. Global GDP growth forecast of 3.9% in 2018 is a strong starting point, and emerging markets are expected to contribute 45% of that growth, growing at close to 5% in 2018. Mr. Guri mentioned the potential for a longer and stronger investment driven global cyclical upswing and that the risks are US inflation impulses, nervous bond markets, and new Fed communication.
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OUR PREMIUM MEMBERS 2018